[NEWS IN-DEPTH] Analysis on N. Korea’s latest activities

[NEWS IN-DEPTH] Analysis on N. Korea’s latest activities


amid stalled Pyongyang Washington
nuclear talks North Korea’s latest activities have once again put
inter-korean relations at risk and just days after an abrupt order from Kim
jong-un to get rid of South Korean facilities at Mount Kumgang resort North
Korea conducted yet another round of projectile launches raising concerns in
the region meanwhile South Korea’s Intelligence Agency today said Kim
jong-un is seeking to meet with US President Trump before the year ends
today we go in-depth on possible solutions to strained inter-korean
relations and prospects of North Korea US nuclear talks with dr. Kim Jung Hyun
at the asan Institute for Policy Studies welcome to the program
so South Korea’s national intelligence agency today said that Kim jong-un is
seeking to meet with US president Trump in December at the latest how do you
gauge the possibility of that happening before the year end well that’s a
possibility clearly as is we have a confirmation from an assister it’s
probably that North Korea’s North Korean leader is entertaining the opportunity
to I mean the chastened mean with President Trump for the from his all
time very seriously not to understand this in the context of the self-imposed
deadline that North Korean leader came up with earlier this year which he
stated that the United States had until the end of the year to change its
negotiation approach does North Korea meaning University shoot tons of
terrorists North Korea so in a way in a way player kim jungnam might be thinking
about meeting with president wrong one last time before he will hold a deadline
before he changes his approach towards in the United States meaning or more
hardline more aggressive approach of provocations and whatnot so in the sense
I think he’s trying to maximize the pressure on the present job is dangling
two options in front of Trump no way one is one of dialogue in which Kim and
troubled middle game with attended the political benefits proper centrum and at
the same time the other option is the option that an almost to go down
alcohol’s to choose which is one of confrontation and conflict so in order
to maximize in a ways for United States to choose between the two options I
think is dangling this a possibility of me
we present trample – for the third time if Kim jong-un and Trump actually meet
in December what are the possible scenarios of the outcome of their summit
so what to think about this I mean right now the trajectory that North Korea’s
engaged in is one of escalating provocations escalating tensions you
know as to use that as a leverage on the United States so we can imagine with the
deadline a game by December the pressure the United States to do something with
the North Korea will be at discharge maximum so to speak so in the sense I
think a United States would be thinking about giving something to in North Korea
in order to manage the situation at least and in the essence even though
we’re talking about a huge downside risk if the summit doesn’t lead to an outcome
at the same time increase the chance of a some possibilities earth might come
out of it so we are in between the two very
dramatic and different of resource in a way so each I think it’s a period of
higher certainty and I think as since the NIS is close the fact that North
Korea is reconsidering meeting with a person Trump again before the end of the
year I think a more information will come out which will allow us to gauge
what kind of research will come out of this support potential meeting now the
National Intelligence Agency also said that Kim jong-un may visit China before
the year ends do you expect that to happen and if from Kim and she meet what
kind of outcome do you expect from that meeting my assessment I think are the
likelihood of another visit by Kim jong-un to Beijing is very more likely
than others our meeting between Trump and Kim because I mean she already
bacilli North Korea June this year so in a way and then also this is the year of
17 years anniversary of the establishment
I stabbed lachemann top with the program relations between DPRK and China so in a
way I think I came for support diplomatic protocol reasons will already
set back to China so I could initiate he has to go back anyways in a way and the
second reason is because no matter what happens in the negotiation with
Washington if they like or there are two scenarios here one is in which there is
some with presents from then we have seen the
pattern here where North Korea needed go to Beijing for consultation with XI
before meeting with the US president so he go there waging anyways but even if
there’s no sort of meeting between the Washington and Pyongyang I think a
chemical to Beijing before in order deadline to get
assurances of backing from China in case North Korea Escalus again in the next
year so anyways I think that there’s a need for North Korea to cut doctrine
leader to go to Beijing now to inter-korean relations South Korea has
proposed North Korea to meet face to face to hold talks on the Mount Kumgang
resort and Mount Kumgang tour as a whole instead of accepting the proposal North
Korea has instead fired off another projectiles into the East Sea what kind
of message is North Korea sending to the South well it’s very clear message I
think we don’t have to interpret it too deep I mean it’s clear that North Korea
doesn’t want to say it once doesn’t want to talk to South Korea at this juncture
right now their attention is focused in Washington I mean clearly all their
energy atomic energies is being spent and realizing this either Lucas or does
meeting with John or like a some sort of agreement so in that sense there’s a lot
of time and resources to meet with the South Korean counterparts Dutch one and
second is that they’re using you know this you know like a laptop engaging
with South Korea as a leverage or Oregon’s instrument to raise tension in
the Korean Peninsula so when Washington sister inter-korean
relations is not doing well and it’s not going anywhere
then this increase increased the perception that the North Koreans are
very being a receiver gain so in turn that increases the pressure on
Washington to do something take action so I think are there in a North Korean
style taking into account this kind of our different åkesson areas right now
North Korea’s latest projectile launch came about 30 days after the North
launched submarine-launched ballistic missile and
that marked the 12th missile launch this year alone could you tell us a little
bit about the specification of North Korea’s latest projectiles so in terms
of the the significance of the latest test
which involved a short-range rocket I mean it should be actually it’s a
message directing South Korea because this rocket that North Koreans tested
doesn’t really have a capability to carry nuclear warheads unlike the one
they tested last month at the SLBM which even the German term Iliad or
short-range missile it can carry on the cleanroom
so has a strategic meaning on it but the rocket tests there is actually part of
the conventional weaponry that North Koreans are developing right now even
though has a really long range from a simple rocket system it’s guided and
it’s a maximum range of around 300 miles which can which in terms of range can
include the entire South Korea geographically speaking so also in the
sense you cannot threaten as well you can assert in Japan or the United States
but and threaten South Korea so it’s a message at irregular South Korea unlike
the SLBM test which was squarely directed at Japan and not the United
States so North Korea’s are using two different tactics here they are sending
a message to Washington and then that message is followed by a message
directly to South Korea so they are taking turns in that sense and then in
by doing so they are actually maximizing the sensed reception that North Koreans
are going to do something nasty now the US has expressed concerns over North
Korea’s projectile launch while Japan has said that it’s a violation of UN
resolutions South Korea has also expressed concerns how do you gauge the
impacts of North Korea’s projectile launch on inter-korean relations well so
clearly it’s not doing any good to the interpreter relations but I think the
bigger shock for the South Korean demonstration was Kim jong-il’s visit to
Mount Kumgang resort and Timothy Cade there who essentially was very anti
South Korea in a way of react recep i mean he threatened to demolish the south
korean facilities their appropriate assessment properties investments in
Mount Kumgang so those are lamorak receipt and say the military exercises
that North Korea just are carried out in terms of a skier provocation clearly the
latest one was smaller than the SLBM test they carried out so the South
Korea negotiations reaction to the latest provocation so to speak I mean
it’s not surprising because I think the South Korean government finally is
realizing that North Koreans meaning that a minute when they are expressing
this content about South Korea’s attitude towards North Korea so I think
I mean the South Korean government proteus decided that you know God taking
us to step back and trying to be I’m trying to solve in I so positive or
chanting not to react to the North Korea’s like resistors stay mr. South
Korea it’s not working anymore so in a way South Korean government sees the
value in being more actually I say more confrontational say with North Korea so
that you can drive the message home to Kenyan that you know South Korea also
has a limit in terms of patience now on the same day North Korea fired those new
jack tiles reports reports came out that Kim jong-un had sent condolences to
president when Jane following the death of President Lee’s mother
now many interpreted that as a positive signal to inter-korean relations how did
you see that well I mean so clearly a positive gesture coming from camión but
then I think in general as a tool I mean he’s playing two games at the same time
one is I mean becoming fee allowed we are allowed to call it games Kim jong-un
is thinking about this strategic interplay with South Korea but also with
the United States so because his time is running out so to speak cause of the
impose deadlines that he came up with himself I mean he wants to maintain
certain level relations with both Washington and so but at the same time
he cannot waste time by taking us to sit back and check to see cage reactions
coming from Seoul and Washington to each one of his actions so even though his
action of sending condolences to the South Korean president and at the same
time testing mr. Zimm contradictory but in the multiple games that North Korea
is engaged in right now is – makes total sense because North Korea is looking at
it at all North Korean eyes are probably focused on the end of the year somehow
they have to come up with either than somebody with trump or some sort of
agreement stays so take a minute to waste so to
speak so sure that guy looks very contractor in here but at the same time
for the North Koreans point of view this is the only option that they have so
this month and the next will be very critical it will be a critical juncture
for the peace process on the Korean Peninsula
we also heard today through reports that North Korea is promoting now promoting
its Mount Kumgang tour program online and this came after rejecting South
Korea’s calls to meet face to face for talks on Mount Kumgang tours and this
obviously is seen as North Korea’s efforts to up the pressure against South
Korea what do you think South South Korean government should do next well I
think the current tech South Korean government stands for North Korea we’re
clear I mean sending clear stern message to North Korea whenever North Korea
carries out an aggression or provocation it’s actually it’s a white one I would
say yes sir I mean there’s not much the South Korean can do in terms of
restarting our cooperation with North Korea on gong-gong a malcontent project
I think in many ways North quit bluffing when North Koreans are threatening to
shut down a mechanic appropriate as asked on investments there because
Mankin guns is a society that’s actually special I mean actually specific to the
Korean nation doesn’t have a much of a brand value to foreigners so to speak
and nobody knows about Monken gonna sell us all the Korean Peninsula even in
China no I mean no few people know about my own gun and also the location of
mahogany service very close to South Korea so it’s actually designed in a way
to attract a South Korean tourism and investment so I think North Korea notice
so nostrils know that even if they can open up you know any side nose create
internal tourism at the end of the day that the man is going to come from South
Korea I think a South Korean government should be my prop there and then take a
more like a long-term approach to convince North Korea to change them
which mine about what they said about manga now in about two weeks time it
marks the 21st anniversary since the joint and Mount Kumgang tourism project
first launched was first launched between
the two koreas do you expect South Korea to make another proposal to the north to
meet for talks on Mount Kumgang marking the anniversary so yeah I’m definitely
sure like I think a South Korean government would use that opportunity to
establish reestablish a channel of dialogue with North Korea I mean after
all the other the ways those Korea decided to stop the provocations the
psycrow provocation attended 2017 and and come to the negotiation table was
the North Korean participation attention Olympics which was started by South
Korean government invitation to pinyin to participate in Olympics so I think
the South Korean government probably has a similar play move in mind to entice
North Korea to come out and then seal at the negotiation table and discuss again
about the potential engagement projects but at the same time as I described
before North Korea’s mind is focused on the
negotiation in Washington so it’s unlikely North Korea will be distracted
for encode thinking about engagement South Korea at this juncture so but at
the same time I would actually keep credit to South Korean government for
trying and no matter what happens and there are before the end of the year or
early next North Korea be there and then I think our there’ll be another chance
at engagement so for their a secret sauce control mission keep working on
this we should be prepared for the restaurant engagement all right thank
you as always dr. Cole for your insights tonight my pleasure

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